* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 09/09/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 23 24 27 30 32 35 38 41 41 38 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 23 24 27 30 32 35 38 41 41 38 SHEAR (KTS) 23 18 20 18 22 17 9 11 11 12 14 17 29 SHEAR DIR 267 271 260 258 250 274 282 285 273 254 257 254 241 SST (C) 27.2 27.1 27.0 27.0 26.9 26.7 26.8 27.0 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.0 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 139 138 137 137 136 133 135 137 138 138 138 137 137 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -52.5 -51.8 -51.8 -52.4 -51.9 -52.6 -52.5 -52.9 -52.5 -53.0 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 7 7 8 8 9 500-300 MB RH 44 48 47 49 51 50 48 45 41 44 44 47 45 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 -1 -3 -1 0 0 -1 0 0 0 1 0 0 850 MB VORT 0 2 0 9 11 15 41 45 56 48 73 58 46 LAND (KM) 1294 1197 1100 1019 938 775 636 537 444 381 304 234 167 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.1 15.3 15.4 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.4 15.5 15.7 16.2 16.8 17.4 LONG(DEG W) 143.6 144.5 145.4 146.2 147.0 148.8 150.5 152.1 153.4 154.3 155.1 155.4 155.5 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 505 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 25 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 26.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 16. 20. 23. 25. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. 16. 17. 17. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 2. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 15. 18. 21. 21. 18. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 9/09/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 20.3 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 27.0 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.10 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 117.0 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.81 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 76.6 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.48 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 19.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 26.5 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.10 Scaled RI index= 2.13 Prob of RI= 2.5% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)