* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * MARIA 09/09/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 53 52 52 52 52 53 54 57 64 69 70 67 V (KT) LAND 55 53 52 52 52 52 53 54 57 64 69 70 67 SHEAR (KTS) 36 36 35 31 34 28 36 32 39 55 68 67 57 SHEAR DIR 294 284 280 270 258 226 211 221 234 239 237 245 251 SST (C) 24.6 24.0 23.4 22.5 21.1 17.3 14.5 13.2 12.2 11.5 11.5 10.9 9.8 POT. INT. (KT) 107 103 99 94 88 77 73 72 71 70 70 70 69 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.5 -52.9 -53.1 -54.0 -53.6 -53.5 -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 -51.8 -53.3 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 58 61 62 62 59 63 64 57 63 65 69 70 71 MO FLX (M/S/D) 2 -5 -5 21 29 39 13 0 5 13 -19 -19 27 850 MB VORT 57 63 81 70 80 66 113 148 152 103 63 43 125 LAND (KM) 1048 1057 1083 1115 1162 1293 1478 1309 1196 1142 1082 1005 910 LAT (DEG N) 40.4 41.4 42.3 43.7 45.1 48.6 52.2 55.5 58.5 61.0 62.9 64.1 64.9 LONG(DEG W) 43.4 42.2 40.9 39.5 38.1 35.4 32.9 30.2 27.5 25.0 22.8 19.8 15.8 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 60/ 11 CX,CY: 10/ 5 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 673 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 40 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 60 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -10. -17. -24. -31. -37. -43. -46. -48. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 5. 7. 14. 20. 27. 34. 45. 56. 62. 60. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -18. -22. -27. -30. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 12. 15. 16. 16. 16. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 3. 10. 15. 16. 13. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 2. 9. 14. 15. 12. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) MARIA 9/09/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.53 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 34.4 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.20 SST (C) : Value: 23.1 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 43.4 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.15 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 70.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.43 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 75.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.70 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 21.1 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.56 Scaled RI index= 2.56 Prob of RI= 3.0% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)