* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * NATE 09/09/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 60 56 52 49 45 40 34 30 29 25 21 15 V (KT) LAND 65 60 56 52 49 45 40 34 30 29 25 21 15 SHEAR (KTS) 30 27 27 29 28 28 36 42 47 43 38 37 32 SHEAR DIR 255 262 274 288 288 287 268 260 270 277 270 264 252 SST (C) 27.1 26.8 26.5 26.2 25.9 25.6 24.8 22.7 19.1 16.7 15.5 14.5 14.6 POT. INT. (KT) 131 127 124 121 118 115 109 95 82 76 74 73 73 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.1 -51.2 -51.3 -51.8 -52.1 -52.1 -51.4 -53.1 -53.3 -53.9 -54.4 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 6 6 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 36 34 36 38 42 41 42 47 56 50 52 46 38 MO FLX (M/S/D) 12 9 1 -13 -29 0 12 10 -5 9 3 0 14 850 MB VORT 2 4 9 12 23 5 0 -25 -60 -56 -46 -39 -69 LAND (KM) 1327 1373 1360 1340 1361 1498 1588 1738 1175 637 301 129 51 LAT (DEG N) 34.0 34.3 34.5 35.1 35.6 36.5 38.4 42.2 47.9 51.8 53.9 55.5 55.4 LONG(DEG W) 55.8 53.8 51.7 49.0 46.2 41.3 37.3 32.1 25.4 19.6 14.6 10.1 6.3 HEAT CONTENT 9 8 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 65/ 21 CX,CY: 19/ 9 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 581 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 1 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 80 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -14. -20. -27. -33. -37. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 21. 24. 24. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. -6. -4. -2. 0. 200 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -16. -20. -24. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -7. -9. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -5. -8. -12. -14. -18. -23. -29. -33. -34. -38. -42. -48. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -5. -9. -13. -16. -20. -25. -31. -35. -36. -40. -43. -50. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) NATE 9/09/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -15.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.18 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 28.1 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.36 SST (C) : Value: 26.5 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.36 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 59.2 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.29 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 52.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.00 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 35.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.22 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 18.2 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.65 Scaled RI index= 2.06 Prob of RI= 2.4% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)