* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * OPHELIA 09/09/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 54 55 56 59 61 62 62 65 66 67 67 V (KT) LAND 55 54 54 55 56 59 61 62 62 65 66 67 67 SHEAR (KTS) 14 16 18 15 5 10 14 15 11 1 6 4 4 SHEAR DIR 210 214 232 265 312 280 308 281 304 297 330 343 262 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 164 164 165 165 165 165 165 164 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.3 -51.1 -51.3 -51.4 -51.6 -51.9 -51.6 -51.9 -51.0 -51.3 -50.3 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 11 11 9 8 10 7 8 6 8 6 9 7 500-300 MB RH 33 30 30 28 31 34 42 38 38 40 44 44 50 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 -1 3 0 1 11 7 4 0 1 1 3 850 MB VORT 17 19 28 12 10 3 -20 -21 -4 4 18 36 21 LAND (KM) 170 221 271 318 330 339 382 390 373 359 346 310 215 LAT (DEG N) 29.3 29.6 29.9 30.2 30.5 30.8 30.6 30.5 30.4 30.3 30.2 30.4 31.1 LONG(DEG W) 79.1 78.7 78.3 78.0 77.6 77.0 76.6 76.6 77.0 77.4 77.6 78.1 78.8 HEAT CONTENT 51 46 43 41 41 49 43 42 43 40 40 44 62 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 646 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 21 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 65 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. 15. 16. 18. 19. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -5. -3. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. 1. 4. 6. 7. 8. 12. 13. 14. 13. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -1. 0. 1. 4. 6. 7. 7. 10. 11. 12. 12. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) OPHELIA 9/09/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -10.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.35 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 13.7 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.72 SST (C) : Value: 29.6 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.86 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 110.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.76 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 53.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.00 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 80.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.76 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 21.2 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.55 Scaled RI index= 4.01 Prob of RI= 11.8% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.1%)