* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 09/09/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 22 24 26 30 34 39 43 46 47 45 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 22 24 26 30 34 39 43 46 47 45 SHEAR (KTS) 23 21 24 20 22 18 11 10 5 9 8 11 11 SHEAR DIR 261 255 250 248 260 280 295 305 318 276 250 222 221 SST (C) 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.8 27.1 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 138 137 136 135 133 135 138 140 141 141 141 141 140 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.5 -51.8 -51.9 -52.1 -52.0 -52.3 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 8 8 9 500-300 MB RH 49 49 50 56 52 46 49 43 47 44 46 40 38 MO FLX (M/S/D) -5 -1 -2 1 1 -7 -1 -4 -3 0 2 0 0 850 MB VORT -8 -2 3 11 4 3 31 17 21 18 21 18 30 LAND (KM) 1096 995 894 811 731 585 522 486 494 500 500 489 479 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.2 15.3 15.4 15.4 15.5 15.1 14.8 14.5 14.4 14.4 14.5 14.6 LONG(DEG W) 145.6 146.6 147.6 148.5 149.4 151.2 152.7 154.0 154.9 155.5 155.7 155.8 156.0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 680 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 57 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 33.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 16. 21. 24. 26. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 10. 13. 17. 20. 22. 23. 24. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. 0. 2. 3. 2. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 14. 19. 23. 26. 27. 25. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 9/09/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 22.1 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 26.9 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.06 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 115.6 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.80 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 78.2 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.55 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 17.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 33.6 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.00 Scaled RI index= 2.04 Prob of RI= 2.4% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)