* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * MARIA 09/09/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 55 55 56 57 59 61 64 72 78 81 77 V (KT) LAND 55 55 55 55 56 57 59 61 64 72 78 81 77 SHEAR (KTS) 40 35 35 36 33 36 32 35 54 64 73 65 47 SHEAR DIR 285 276 268 262 250 225 232 244 258 274 287 273 271 SST (C) 24.0 23.4 22.7 21.2 19.4 16.1 13.8 12.7 12.1 10.8 10.7 10.4 10.6 POT. INT. (KT) 103 99 95 88 82 75 72 71 71 70 70 70 70 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.9 -53.4 -54.1 -53.8 -54.7 -54.1 -53.5 -54.0 -54.0 -53.3 -51.9 -49.8 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 58 59 59 55 55 62 57 53 73 73 72 71 71 MO FLX (M/S/D) -11 0 24 27 45 56 9 7 -8 10 54 57 15 850 MB VORT 81 91 91 89 72 85 141 145 109 116 58 191 232 LAND (KM) 1064 1083 1121 1146 1190 1363 1437 1217 1030 740 881 1072 955 LAT (DEG N) 41.2 42.3 43.4 45.1 46.7 50.0 53.7 57.1 60.6 63.5 66.1 67.9 66.8 LONG(DEG W) 42.2 40.9 39.6 38.4 37.1 34.3 31.9 28.5 23.1 14.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 50/ 12 CX,CY: 9/ 8 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 704 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 37 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 55 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -11. -19. -26. -33. -38. -45. -48. -50. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 5. 8. 15. 23. 29. 38. 52. 64. 70. 67. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -3. -3. -5. -8. -11. -15. -19. -23. -27. -31. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 13. 15. 16. 18. 22. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 10. 18. 25. 28. 23. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 17. 23. 26. 22. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) MARIA 9/09/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 35.7 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.17 SST (C) : Value: 22.1 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 38.7 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.11 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 71.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.46 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 68.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.61 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 17.3 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.68 Scaled RI index= 2.75 Prob of RI= 3.2% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)