* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * NATE 09/09/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 50 45 42 39 35 32 28 26 25 22 16 DIS V (KT) LAND 55 50 45 42 39 35 32 28 26 25 22 16 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 28 26 30 28 23 27 37 43 40 27 34 44 36 SHEAR DIR 258 264 277 284 278 265 247 237 237 216 200 213 223 SST (C) 26.7 26.3 26.1 25.8 25.8 25.1 24.0 21.3 18.0 16.3 15.4 14.8 14.4 POT. INT. (KT) 126 122 120 117 117 111 103 89 79 76 74 73 73 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.1 -51.3 -51.6 -51.8 -51.6 -51.6 -51.9 -53.1 -53.1 -53.4 -53.2 -55.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 6 6 6 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 34 31 34 37 35 36 47 52 61 54 53 49 39 MO FLX (M/S/D) 10 8 -1 -33 -15 9 18 -1 -1 5 9 10 12 850 MB VORT 3 12 22 29 0 -30 -11 -44 -80 -78 -109 -158 -171 LAND (KM) 1344 1311 1308 1342 1405 1515 1599 1689 1077 660 359 172 -19 LAT (DEG N) 34.6 35.0 35.4 35.8 36.1 37.6 40.7 44.6 49.2 52.4 54.1 55.2 54.8 LONG(DEG W) 53.4 51.1 48.7 46.3 43.9 39.4 35.0 30.2 24.9 20.0 15.5 11.6 8.0 HEAT CONTENT 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 70/ 22 CX,CY: 21/ 8 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 601 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -19 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 70 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -13. -18. -24. -28. -31. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 17. 23. 28. 31. 30. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -8. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -7. -4. -2. 0. 200 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -16. -20. -24. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -15. -19. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -7. -9. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -5. -8. -10. -13. -16. -19. -24. -27. -27. -32. -38. -45. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -5. -10. -13. -16. -20. -23. -27. -29. -30. -33. -38. -46. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) NATE 9/09/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -15.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.18 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 26.7 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.39 SST (C) : Value: 26.1 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.30 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 65.5 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.35 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 52.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.00 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 16.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 20.7 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.57 Scaled RI index= 1.79 Prob of RI= 2.1% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)