* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * OPHELIA 09/09/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 68 70 72 74 77 80 79 79 78 74 69 65 V (KT) LAND 65 68 70 72 74 77 80 79 79 78 74 56 36 SHEAR (KTS) 18 18 15 9 8 14 6 14 5 9 12 10 12 SHEAR DIR 214 237 267 289 271 296 292 301 296 259 171 217 230 SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.8 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 164 164 165 165 162 160 159 154 134 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.1 -51.4 -51.5 -51.1 -51.7 -50.7 -51.0 -50.7 -50.4 -49.9 -49.8 -50.5 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 9 8 10 8 9 7 7 5 8 6 8 500-300 MB RH 32 30 31 35 38 36 46 39 34 34 36 36 31 MO FLX (M/S/D) 4 4 5 8 0 8 0 5 3 2 2 5 -22 850 MB VORT 28 22 5 9 -1 -14 -4 -26 5 3 49 31 68 LAND (KM) 241 270 295 313 300 326 346 297 196 124 83 -35 -247 LAT (DEG N) 29.8 30.0 30.2 30.6 30.9 30.8 30.2 30.6 31.4 31.8 31.3 32.4 34.6 LONG(DEG W) 78.6 78.4 78.2 77.9 77.5 77.2 77.6 78.1 78.6 79.3 80.4 81.1 81.5 HEAT CONTENT 55 51 46 36 30 29 36 42 50 43 44 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 30/ 5 CX,CY: 3/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 611 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 23 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 55 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 6. 5. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 15. 16. 16. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 11. 14. 16. 16. 16. 14. 11. 6. 1. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 5. 7. 9. 12. 15. 14. 14. 13. 9. 4. 0. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) OPHELIA 9/09/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.90 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 13.5 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.72 SST (C) : Value: 29.5 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.85 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 99.8 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.66 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 58.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.03 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 81.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.77 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 24.3 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.45 Scaled RI index= 4.39 Prob of RI= 16.7% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.1%)