* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 09/09/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 22 24 26 31 37 43 48 53 55 55 54 V (KT) LAND 20 20 22 24 26 31 37 43 48 53 55 55 54 SHEAR (KTS) 20 19 20 20 19 18 13 10 11 11 14 12 8 SHEAR DIR 254 257 258 269 276 295 310 308 314 297 279 268 237 SST (C) 27.2 26.9 26.8 26.8 26.8 27.1 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 139 136 135 135 135 138 140 140 141 142 142 142 142 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -52.4 -51.9 -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -53.2 -53.3 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 500-300 MB RH 53 51 54 54 51 52 48 45 44 39 39 34 35 MO FLX (M/S/D) -1 2 3 0 -7 -5 -9 -6 1 0 -4 -1 2 850 MB VORT 3 3 0 -9 -12 15 9 13 4 9 6 2 -8 LAND (KM) 985 880 777 694 616 507 462 477 530 578 608 612 595 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 14.9 15.1 15.2 15.3 15.2 14.9 14.6 14.2 13.9 13.7 13.7 13.9 LONG(DEG W) 147.0 148.1 149.1 150.1 151.0 152.8 154.4 155.6 156.5 157.1 157.4 157.5 157.6 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 793 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 32 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 17. 21. 24. 27. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 6. 10. 15. 21. 25. 28. 29. 31. 32. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 3. 4. 3. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 2. 4. 6. 11. 17. 23. 28. 33. 35. 35. 34. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 9/09/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 19.7 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 26.9 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.06 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 115.6 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.80 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 79.4 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.61 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 9.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 24.6 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.19 Scaled RI index= 2.28 Prob of RI= 2.6% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)