* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * MARIA 09/10/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 49 49 50 53 57 61 68 80 89 92 86 V (KT) LAND 50 49 49 49 50 53 57 61 68 80 89 92 86 SHEAR (KTS) 32 31 31 30 34 40 33 38 52 58 60 45 34 SHEAR DIR 285 264 272 252 235 221 228 238 249 252 261 267 266 SST (C) 23.5 22.7 21.4 19.5 17.6 14.5 12.7 11.8 11.6 11.2 7.6 10.0 10.4 POT. INT. (KT) 100 95 89 83 78 73 71 70 70 70 68 69 70 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.6 -53.9 -53.7 -54.1 -53.9 -54.1 -54.6 -54.7 -53.3 -52.1 -50.7 -49.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 58 57 53 50 55 64 59 66 75 71 79 72 68 MO FLX (M/S/D) -1 26 30 42 49 31 -6 1 -1 -14 26 21 -9 850 MB VORT 81 77 90 85 81 125 134 118 137 179 181 262 245 LAND (KM) 1135 1157 1197 1226 1288 1436 1385 1264 1105 909 1008 1210 1037 LAT (DEG N) 41.9 43.3 44.6 46.5 48.3 52.1 56.1 59.0 61.4 64.0 67.4 69.2 67.6 LONG(DEG W) 40.5 39.2 37.9 36.7 35.5 33.5 31.4 28.4 24.1 17.6 8.9 0.4 0.4 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 55/ 14 CX,CY: 11/ 8 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 685 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 69 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 55 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -11. -19. -26. -32. -37. -42. -45. -46. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 4. 7. 11. 20. 28. 36. 45. 59. 70. 73. 67. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -15. -19. -23. -28. -31. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 18. 22. 26. 30. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. 0. 3. 7. 11. 18. 30. 39. 42. 36. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -1. -1. 0. 3. 7. 11. 18. 30. 39. 42. 36. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) MARIA 9/10/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.53 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 31.8 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.27 SST (C) : Value: 20.9 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 39.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.11 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 70.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.45 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value:999.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 999.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value:999.00 Scaled RI index=999.00 Prob of RI=999.0% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.1%)