* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * NATE 09/10/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 45 40 37 34 30 27 25 25 29 29 25 16 V (KT) LAND 50 45 40 37 34 30 27 25 25 29 29 25 16 SHEAR (KTS) 26 29 26 21 22 28 48 49 39 41 39 40 34 SHEAR DIR 269 289 294 283 282 249 242 230 230 222 215 230 245 SST (C) 26.4 26.2 25.9 25.8 25.7 24.8 22.7 19.8 15.9 14.4 13.6 13.9 14.9 POT. INT. (KT) 123 121 118 117 116 109 95 84 75 73 72 72 73 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.4 -51.6 -51.8 -52.0 -51.8 -51.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -52.9 -53.6 -56.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 5 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 30 36 38 36 38 41 52 62 62 59 53 49 40 MO FLX (M/S/D) 9 -8 -36 -18 -1 9 3 15 1 0 20 -33 0 850 MB VORT -6 -7 -5 -12 -21 0 -1 2 20 20 -31 -114 -188 LAND (KM) 1347 1359 1396 1428 1484 1576 1618 1480 879 538 372 168 9 LAT (DEG N) 34.7 35.0 35.2 35.8 36.3 38.3 42.2 46.8 52.2 55.7 57.0 57.1 55.2 LONG(DEG W) 50.8 48.6 46.4 44.2 41.9 37.6 33.7 29.1 23.2 17.8 13.0 8.8 5.2 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 75/ 23 CX,CY: 22/ 6 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 694 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -63 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 65 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 1.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -13. -17. -23. -26. -29. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 17. 22. 31. 36. 39. 36. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -11. -8. -5. -2. -1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -17. -21. -25. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -8. -12. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -5. -7. -10. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -5. -8. -11. -14. -18. -20. -22. -23. -18. -20. -25. -31. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -5. -10. -13. -16. -20. -23. -25. -25. -21. -21. -25. -34. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) NATE 9/10/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -15.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.18 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 24.8 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.44 SST (C) : Value: 26.0 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.28 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 69.1 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.38 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 52.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.00 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 12.8 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.84 Scaled RI index= 2.12 Prob of RI= 2.5% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)