* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * OPHELIA 09/10/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 69 72 75 77 80 83 82 82 80 75 68 63 V (KT) LAND 65 69 72 75 77 80 83 82 82 80 62 43 32 SHEAR (KTS) 20 17 10 9 13 10 11 11 8 5 14 12 18 SHEAR DIR 228 267 262 246 263 312 325 316 237 269 251 277 266 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.6 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 164 164 162 162 162 162 160 157 155 151 139 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.2 -51.1 -50.6 -50.9 -51.9 -51.3 -51.3 -50.3 -50.4 -49.8 -50.2 -50.4 TH_E DEV (C) 12 10 8 10 9 5 6 3 7 3 8 5 8 500-300 MB RH 30 29 34 35 35 39 43 38 33 34 34 40 45 MO FLX (M/S/D) 5 12 13 4 6 5 5 4 8 5 6 2 0 850 MB VORT 43 20 10 0 -3 4 -8 -8 6 12 12 10 32 LAND (KM) 349 358 352 341 327 294 266 193 114 43 -9 -59 -127 LAT (DEG N) 30.1 30.5 30.9 31.1 31.3 31.4 31.6 31.8 32.0 32.5 33.3 34.3 35.5 LONG(DEG W) 77.5 77.1 76.7 76.7 76.6 77.0 77.2 78.0 79.1 79.6 79.4 78.9 78.2 HEAT CONTENT 36 27 31 34 37 37 39 40 40 27 15 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 55/ 7 CX,CY: 6/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 465 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 27 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 55 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 17. 17. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 11. 15. 17. 17. 18. 17. 12. 4. -1. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 7. 10. 12. 15. 18. 17. 17. 15. 10. 3. -2. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) OPHELIA 9/10/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.90 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 13.8 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.72 SST (C) : Value: 29.4 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.84 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 98.9 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.66 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 59.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.07 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 77.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.72 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 15.7 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.74 Scaled RI index= 4.64 Prob of RI= 23.0% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.1%)