* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 09/10/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 33 36 39 42 45 47 48 48 46 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 33 36 39 42 45 47 48 48 46 SHEAR (KTS) 22 19 20 22 16 15 12 9 11 12 14 9 8 SHEAR DIR 254 265 276 280 296 311 314 287 288 276 263 245 202 SST (C) 27.0 26.8 26.7 26.8 26.9 27.1 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 137 135 133 135 136 138 140 141 142 143 143 143 143 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.8 -52.0 -52.2 -52.0 -52.3 -52.7 -52.8 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 -52.9 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 500-300 MB RH 53 58 54 49 50 48 44 44 35 32 28 30 27 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 2 0 -4 -6 -3 -3 0 4 -2 0 0 0 850 MB VORT 3 0 -4 -11 -3 14 3 4 16 23 17 2 -32 LAND (KM) 939 821 706 617 534 463 452 512 578 645 658 645 645 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.2 15.4 15.6 15.7 15.3 14.9 14.3 13.8 13.3 13.2 13.3 13.3 LONG(DEG W) 147.3 148.5 149.7 150.7 151.7 153.4 154.8 155.9 156.7 157.2 157.3 157.2 157.2 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 610 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 69 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 19. 22. 24. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 9. 11. 14. 16. 18. 20. 20. 20. 20. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 2. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 14. 17. 20. 22. 23. 23. 21. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 9/10/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.79 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 19.7 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 26.8 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.04 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 109.9 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.74 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 79.4 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.61 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 30.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.05 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 27.2 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.07 Scaled RI index= 2.31 Prob of RI= 2.7% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)