* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * MARIA 09/10/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 50 51 52 56 60 65 72 82 87 85 76 V (KT) LAND 50 50 50 51 52 56 60 65 72 82 87 85 76 SHEAR (KTS) 29 30 31 34 38 35 36 47 56 54 48 49 50 SHEAR DIR 269 264 248 234 220 220 226 238 245 252 264 269 287 SST (C) 22.9 21.5 19.8 17.8 16.1 13.8 12.3 11.9 11.9 10.0 10.5 10.0 10.4 POT. INT. (KT) 96 90 84 78 75 72 71 71 71 69 70 69 70 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.5 -53.4 -53.7 -54.2 -53.3 -53.1 -53.5 -53.7 -52.1 -50.4 -49.8 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 58 53 54 55 61 60 62 72 76 67 65 43 47 MO FLX (M/S/D) 25 31 39 50 48 16 2 7 -2 -2 10 79 21 850 MB VORT 85 88 86 79 90 140 136 122 148 206 218 82 6 LAND (KM) 1174 1205 1250 1297 1363 1472 1311 1187 944 775 1019 1212 1051 LAT (DEG N) 42.9 44.5 46.1 48.1 50.0 53.6 57.3 59.8 61.8 64.2 67.4 69.2 67.7 LONG(DEG W) 39.2 37.9 36.5 35.4 34.3 32.4 30.0 26.3 20.9 13.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 50/ 14 CX,CY: 11/ 9 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 681 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 46 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 50 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -12. -20. -27. -33. -38. -44. -46. -47. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 4. 8. 12. 22. 30. 39. 49. 62. 70. 73. 69. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -16. -19. -24. -28. -32. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 12. 15. 19. 24. 25. 23. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 10. 15. 22. 32. 37. 35. 26. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 10. 15. 22. 32. 37. 35. 26. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) MARIA 9/10/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 32.5 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.25 SST (C) : Value: 19.6 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 34.7 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.07 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 71.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.48 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value:999.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 999.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value:999.00 Scaled RI index=999.00 Prob of RI=999.0% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.1%)