* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * NATE 09/10/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 47 45 43 41 38 35 32 28 27 23 17 DIS V (KT) LAND 50 47 45 43 41 38 35 32 28 27 23 17 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 30 27 20 25 20 42 53 48 41 43 36 30 N/A SHEAR DIR 294 299 287 277 275 242 235 232 223 223 210 230 9999 SST (C) 26.3 26.0 25.9 25.8 25.5 24.5 21.4 19.5 17.7 16.8 16.6 15.6 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 122 119 118 117 114 106 89 83 78 76 76 74 N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.8 -52.1 -52.2 -52.1 -51.6 -52.2 -53.0 -53.3 -53.8 -54.2 -54.8 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 6 6 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 N/A 500-300 MB RH 32 35 34 35 38 42 54 60 52 48 57 48 N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) -19 -43 -12 3 10 17 1 18 7 -1 28 0 N/A 850 MB VORT -5 -10 -19 -19 -21 17 -15 -45 -43 -78 -141 -151 N/A LAND (KM) 1375 1401 1447 1476 1531 1588 1649 1398 1058 783 552 291 N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.7 35.0 35.2 36.0 36.7 39.7 44.1 47.2 49.5 51.3 52.2 53.6 N/A LONG(DEG W) 49.1 47.1 45.0 42.7 40.4 36.0 32.1 28.2 24.8 21.6 18.4 14.4 N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 90/ 16 CX,CY: 16/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 773 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -28 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 55 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -11. -16. -20. -26. -29. -31. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 2. 3. 5. 8. 13. 18. 23. 30. 35. 35. 31. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -14. -18. -22. -24. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -13. -16. -17. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -6. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -13. -16. -20. -21. -25. -33. -38. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -15. -18. -22. -23. -27. -33. -41. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) NATE 9/10/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.53 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 24.3 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.45 SST (C) : Value: 25.9 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.26 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 68.1 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.38 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 53.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.00 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 8.6 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.98 Scaled RI index= 2.60 Prob of RI= 3.0% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)