* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * OPHELIA 09/10/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 60 61 62 63 67 68 68 68 68 65 60 56 V (KT) LAND 60 60 61 62 63 67 68 68 68 44 34 29 28 SHEAR (KTS) 21 13 13 14 15 8 14 5 14 8 13 14 18 SHEAR DIR 254 265 246 263 300 305 323 301 300 292 301 314 280 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.7 28.2 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 164 164 162 162 162 162 160 159 155 152 152 145 129 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.3 -50.7 -51.0 -51.5 -50.9 -51.0 -50.9 -50.8 -51.2 -51.1 -51.7 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 9 9 6 6 4 8 7 9 7 9 6 500-300 MB RH 28 32 34 34 37 45 37 42 38 43 38 38 41 MO FLX (M/S/D) 16 11 3 8 7 7 5 7 7 0 -1 -7 -20 850 MB VORT 13 12 -3 2 -9 14 -36 -22 -36 -43 -60 -44 -27 LAND (KM) 338 345 345 324 303 245 186 101 4 -60 -45 -119 -161 LAT (DEG N) 30.9 31.1 31.2 31.4 31.5 31.8 31.9 32.3 32.9 33.5 33.8 34.9 36.4 LONG(DEG W) 76.9 76.7 76.4 76.6 76.7 77.3 78.0 78.8 79.6 79.9 79.5 78.8 77.7 HEAT CONTENT 31 33 37 38 40 43 41 34 24 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 35/ 9 CX,CY: 5/ 7 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 512 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 22 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 65 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 16. 17. 17. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -13. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 2. 3. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 6. 2. -2. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 5. 0. -4. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) OPHELIA 9/10/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.53 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 15.0 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.69 SST (C) : Value: 29.3 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.83 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 102.7 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.69 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 60.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.10 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 62.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.54 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 18.0 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.66 Scaled RI index= 4.03 Prob of RI= 12.2% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.1%)