* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 09/10/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 36 40 43 43 43 43 43 42 39 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 36 40 43 43 43 43 43 42 39 SHEAR (KTS) 25 22 21 18 17 21 16 20 19 21 26 25 29 SHEAR DIR 259 269 281 285 286 284 281 281 272 258 245 252 240 SST (C) 26.8 26.7 26.8 26.8 26.9 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 135 133 135 135 136 138 138 138 138 138 138 138 139 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.4 -52.7 -52.1 -52.0 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -53.4 -53.8 -54.4 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 500-300 MB RH 61 58 55 52 54 48 46 47 40 39 38 35 33 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 -2 -6 -3 -5 -3 12 0 1 -4 1 5 850 MB VORT 21 19 12 16 17 6 14 22 51 61 65 40 33 LAND (KM) 823 705 590 508 434 330 311 333 364 384 379 352 348 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.6 15.9 16.1 16.2 16.2 16.1 16.0 15.9 15.9 16.2 16.8 17.3 LONG(DEG W) 148.4 149.6 150.7 151.7 152.6 154.3 155.5 156.4 157.0 157.4 157.8 158.2 158.6 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 597 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 62 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 21. 22. 24. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 9. 12. 14. 15. 15. 15. 15. 14. 13. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 9. 11. 15. 18. 18. 18. 18. 18. 17. 14. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 9/10/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.79 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 20.7 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 26.8 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.03 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 109.5 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.74 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 78.6 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.57 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 36.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.14 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 20.1 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.38 Scaled RI index= 2.64 Prob of RI= 3.0% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.0%)