* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * NATE 09/10/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 42 40 38 36 34 31 27 23 22 19 15 DIS V (KT) LAND 45 42 40 38 36 34 31 27 23 22 19 17 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 27 21 23 20 14 22 29 29 21 30 34 36 N/A SHEAR DIR 309 307 298 298 280 267 245 251 217 205 230 249 9999 SST (C) 26.0 26.0 25.9 25.8 25.5 24.6 21.9 19.6 18.0 16.7 15.8 14.5 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 119 119 118 117 114 107 91 83 79 76 75 73 N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.9 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 -52.4 -53.1 -53.6 -54.3 -54.2 -55.9 -55.8 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 6 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 500-300 MB RH 31 32 34 36 38 44 59 53 54 55 46 46 N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) -27 -21 -7 2 8 2 2 0 4 16 16 -1 N/A 850 MB VORT -12 -21 -10 -19 -20 -24 -71 -104 -106 -122 -160 -157 N/A LAND (KM) 1485 1539 1610 1684 1775 1874 1527 1094 696 402 188 -13 N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.5 34.8 35.0 35.5 36.0 38.8 44.0 47.4 50.0 52.1 53.2 54.7 N/A LONG(DEG W) 45.9 43.9 41.8 39.6 37.3 32.8 28.0 23.7 19.7 16.2 12.6 8.3 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 90/ 22 CX,CY: 22/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 693 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -6 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 55 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 6.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -12. -16. -20. -23. -25. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 15. 20. 23. 29. 34. 36. 32. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -6. -3. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -17. -21. -24. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -16. -20. -23. -24. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -5. -7. -10. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -16. -20. -21. -24. -29. -34. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -14. -18. -22. -23. -26. -30. -36. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) NATE 9/10/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -10.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.35 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 21.0 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.54 SST (C) : Value: 25.8 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.25 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 72.5 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.42 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 62.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.17 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 6.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 1.00 Scaled RI index= 2.73 Prob of RI= 3.2% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)