* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * OPHELIA 09/10/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 60 60 61 62 65 65 65 62 62 57 53 47 V (KT) LAND 60 60 60 61 62 65 65 65 49 36 30 28 28 SHEAR (KTS) 19 16 17 16 12 10 15 11 13 15 13 14 23 SHEAR DIR 267 270 276 299 320 305 313 282 291 279 311 304 308 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.5 28.0 27.0 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 162 160 160 160 160 160 159 157 154 149 142 129 117 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -50.9 -51.0 -51.3 -51.9 -51.1 -51.2 -50.6 -50.7 -50.6 -50.7 -51.1 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 10 9 6 4 6 3 7 4 9 6 9 5 500-300 MB RH 32 35 36 40 45 41 39 31 32 32 36 41 48 MO FLX (M/S/D) 17 13 7 2 9 11 11 3 13 0 -3 4 -11 850 MB VORT 0 -13 -5 -9 15 1 -15 -20 -17 -25 -44 -53 -48 LAND (KM) 307 291 276 260 244 198 124 37 -33 -78 -146 -186 -96 LAT (DEG N) 31.5 31.7 31.9 32.0 32.0 32.2 32.5 32.9 33.3 34.1 35.1 36.4 37.8 LONG(DEG W) 76.6 76.5 76.4 76.7 76.9 77.6 78.3 79.1 79.7 79.7 79.0 78.0 76.7 HEAT CONTENT 40 46 51 52 52 43 33 22 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 45/ 7 CX,CY: 5/ 5 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 598 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 30 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 65 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 15. 16. 16. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 0. 1. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. -1. -6. -11. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 5. 5. 2. 2. -3. -7. -13. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) OPHELIA 9/10/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.53 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 16.0 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.66 SST (C) : Value: 29.2 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.81 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 100.7 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.67 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 60.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.10 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 74.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.69 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 17.1 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.69 Scaled RI index= 4.15 Prob of RI= 13.6% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.1%)