* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 09/10/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 32 35 37 37 38 38 40 40 39 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 32 35 37 37 38 38 40 40 39 SHEAR (KTS) 21 22 18 18 18 18 17 20 21 20 20 23 19 SHEAR DIR 267 276 279 279 283 284 269 279 275 273 268 264 260 SST (C) 26.8 26.7 26.8 26.9 27.0 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 135 133 135 136 137 139 139 139 140 140 140 140 140 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -52.4 -52.5 -52.8 -52.7 -53.2 -53.1 -53.1 -53.6 -54.1 -54.2 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 500-300 MB RH 58 56 54 56 52 50 57 50 46 45 47 45 43 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 -4 -6 -2 -5 1 1 0 0 0 -6 7 6 850 MB VORT 0 0 4 14 14 8 24 32 41 29 18 2 -9 LAND (KM) 821 718 621 560 502 412 400 438 497 540 577 584 614 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.4 15.5 15.5 15.4 15.4 15.3 15.1 14.9 14.9 14.9 15.2 15.4 LONG(DEG W) 148.5 149.6 150.7 151.7 152.6 154.3 155.6 156.7 157.7 158.5 159.1 159.6 160.2 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 549 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 21 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 19. 21. 23. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 6. 7. 10. 12. 12. 13. 13. 15. 15. 14. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 9/10/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 19.2 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 26.8 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.04 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 109.9 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.74 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 80.4 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.65 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 43.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.23 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 16.4 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.54 Scaled RI index= 2.84 Prob of RI= 6.2% is 0.5 times the sample mean(12.0%)