* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * OPHELIA 09/10/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 72 74 75 77 77 77 74 71 66 60 53 46 V (KT) LAND 70 72 74 75 77 77 77 74 50 35 29 28 28 SHEAR (KTS) 17 18 18 16 12 15 13 14 12 17 14 22 31 SHEAR DIR 269 281 301 314 307 301 302 304 264 278 289 266 247 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.7 28.3 27.8 26.8 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 160 160 160 160 159 157 152 146 139 127 114 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.2 -51.7 -52.2 -51.7 -51.6 -50.7 -50.6 -50.2 -50.1 -50.4 -51.4 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 6 4 6 4 7 5 8 6 8 4 3 500-300 MB RH 33 34 39 42 40 33 34 31 33 34 37 38 37 MO FLX (M/S/D) 8 8 5 12 15 6 5 1 5 7 -12 -16 -14 850 MB VORT -12 -15 -17 9 14 -34 -17 -26 2 -11 20 2 21 LAND (KM) 305 284 262 243 227 204 124 32 -47 -104 -170 -189 -111 LAT (DEG N) 31.7 31.9 32.0 32.1 32.1 32.2 32.5 33.0 33.7 34.5 35.3 36.6 38.3 LONG(DEG W) 76.2 76.4 76.5 76.8 77.1 77.5 78.3 79.1 79.6 79.6 79.1 78.1 76.6 HEAT CONTENT 31 34 36 42 45 42 33 20 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 45/ 4 CX,CY: 3/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 609 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 25 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 60 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -4. -7. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. -16. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 1. -3. -8. -15. -23. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 4. 1. -4. -10. -17. -24. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) OPHELIA 9/10/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.90 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 16.1 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.66 SST (C) : Value: 29.2 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.80 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 90.3 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.58 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 61.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.13 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 75.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.70 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 15.8 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.74 Scaled RI index= 4.50 Prob of RI= 19.5% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.1%)