* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * OPHELIA 09/11/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 69 69 69 69 69 69 67 65 62 58 54 48 V (KT) LAND 70 69 69 69 69 69 69 67 53 38 31 31 25 SHEAR (KTS) 18 17 15 10 13 10 12 8 15 13 14 12 23 SHEAR DIR 266 290 320 327 311 326 285 282 252 256 230 271 226 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.2 27.8 27.3 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 160 159 159 159 159 160 159 155 151 145 139 133 124 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -52.0 -52.5 -52.2 -51.8 -51.9 -51.0 -51.4 -50.2 -50.2 -49.6 -50.4 -50.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 6 5 6 6 3 7 2 8 4 8 4 4 500-300 MB RH 34 39 43 42 39 38 34 33 32 38 38 42 48 MO FLX (M/S/D) 14 5 9 11 15 2 4 4 10 7 0 -6 -8 850 MB VORT -6 -12 0 25 0 -21 -14 2 16 20 49 31 19 LAND (KM) 313 319 325 314 304 229 169 76 -22 -70 -77 63 307 LAT (DEG N) 31.8 31.8 31.8 31.9 31.9 32.2 32.5 33.3 34.3 35.1 35.5 36.6 38.1 LONG(DEG W) 75.9 75.8 75.7 75.8 75.9 76.8 77.6 77.9 78.0 77.8 77.4 75.1 71.3 HEAT CONTENT 32 32 32 33 33 41 39 28 9999 9999 9999 3 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 652 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 15 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 70 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -2. -4. -7. -10. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 14. 15. 16. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -3. -6. -10. -15. -20. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -12. -16. -22. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) OPHELIA 9/11/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 14.8 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.69 SST (C) : Value: 29.1 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.79 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 89.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.57 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 60.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.10 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 62.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.54 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 21.2 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.55 Scaled RI index= 3.95 Prob of RI= 11.2% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12.1%)