* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 09/11/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 31 35 42 49 54 56 58 57 55 52 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 31 35 42 49 54 56 58 57 55 52 SHEAR (KTS) 12 10 9 7 2 3 4 5 9 2 3 9 10 SHEAR DIR 305 323 308 313 84 350 104 57 99 18 142 249 245 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.2 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.4 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 149 148 148 146 144 139 132 132 132 130 129 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.2 -52.7 -52.4 -51.9 -52.7 -51.9 -52.7 -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 -52.7 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 7 7 5 5 4 3 3 3 4 500-300 MB RH 47 45 47 47 49 49 52 49 44 48 43 42 40 MO FLX (M/S/D) 3 3 2 0 1 0 -2 -4 -2 0 1 3 1 850 MB VORT -17 -18 -26 -22 -12 0 21 37 39 26 18 29 17 LAND (KM) 930 962 968 992 1023 1131 1250 1375 1511 1655 1788 1968 2172 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.7 15.0 15.2 15.3 15.5 15.8 16.1 16.6 17.0 17.4 17.6 17.9 LONG(DEG W) 112.0 113.0 113.9 114.7 115.5 117.4 119.5 121.7 123.9 126.1 128.3 130.7 133.3 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 656 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 27 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 19. 22. 24. 25. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 11. 12. 12. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 15. 21. 27. 29. 29. 29. 27. 25. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 4. 6. 10. 17. 24. 29. 31. 33. 32. 30. 27. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 9/11/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 7.9 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.61 SST (C) : Value: 28.2 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.44 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 124.1 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.89 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 80.8 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.67 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 32.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.08 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 21.8 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.31 Scaled RI index= 3.63 Prob of RI= 20.8% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.0%)