* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * OPHELIA 09/11/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 76 77 77 76 76 73 69 63 59 53 48 42 V (KT) LAND 75 76 77 77 76 76 73 69 63 59 53 48 42 SHEAR (KTS) 19 10 9 15 16 13 16 16 13 8 11 8 27 SHEAR DIR 309 320 294 302 322 312 301 285 309 295 299 220 207 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.4 27.9 26.9 25.3 23.2 POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 160 160 160 159 157 154 148 141 128 113 98 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.7 -51.7 -51.8 -51.8 -51.2 -51.2 -50.2 -50.4 -50.1 -51.0 -50.9 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 8 7 6 5 8 6 9 6 10 6 6 2 500-300 MB RH 40 40 39 36 39 38 37 36 41 44 49 43 38 MO FLX (M/S/D) 9 11 4 3 1 10 5 11 11 5 -4 -3 -2 850 MB VORT -15 4 -11 -40 -33 -38 -48 -42 -52 -71 -33 33 28 LAND (KM) 342 348 354 337 320 255 199 145 63 54 147 224 196 LAT (DEG N) 31.6 31.5 31.4 31.5 31.6 32.2 32.8 33.5 34.4 35.6 37.2 38.7 40.1 LONG(DEG W) 75.7 75.8 75.8 76.0 76.1 76.3 76.4 76.3 76.0 75.3 74.0 72.0 69.4 HEAT CONTENT 28 27 26 27 29 36 35 31 25 10 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 671 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 14 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 70 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -7. -11. -16. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 13. 15. 16. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -13. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -13. -13. -12. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -2. -5. -10. -15. -20. -25. -31. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -2. -6. -12. -16. -22. -27. -33. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) OPHELIA 9/11/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 13.9 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.72 SST (C) : Value: 29.2 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.80 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 85.3 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.53 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 56.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.00 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 61.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.53 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 16.3 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.72 Scaled RI index= 4.18 Prob of RI= 14.0% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)