* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * OPHELIA 09/11/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 69 68 68 69 68 66 63 60 56 53 47 41 V (KT) LAND 70 69 68 68 69 68 66 63 58 48 44 38 32 SHEAR (KTS) 15 16 15 15 13 15 11 16 13 18 15 34 39 SHEAR DIR 302 307 319 323 329 304 277 283 285 272 235 235 215 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.7 28.1 27.2 25.4 23.5 21.3 POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 160 160 160 159 157 152 143 132 114 100 89 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.8 -51.9 -52.0 -51.7 -51.4 -50.3 -50.3 -49.9 -50.2 -51.0 -51.5 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 5 4 7 5 8 7 10 7 8 2 1 500-300 MB RH 40 41 40 39 39 33 36 38 41 47 54 53 46 MO FLX (M/S/D) 7 8 5 6 3 8 10 14 17 3 11 -6 -6 850 MB VORT -16 -22 -46 -31 -26 -39 -18 -38 -30 -21 28 42 86 LAND (KM) 325 311 296 269 243 205 130 67 10 20 87 105 66 LAT (DEG N) 31.6 31.7 31.8 32.0 32.1 32.4 33.1 34.0 35.1 36.6 38.4 39.9 41.1 LONG(DEG W) 76.0 76.1 76.2 76.5 76.7 76.9 77.1 77.0 76.5 75.6 74.0 72.2 70.3 HEAT CONTENT 28 30 32 35 40 42 35 30 13 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 650 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 40 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 75 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -3. -6. -10. -16. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 12. 14. 14. 14. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -13. -16. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -9. -8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -14. -17. -23. -29. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -14. -17. -23. -29. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) OPHELIA 9/11/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.53 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 14.9 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.69 SST (C) : Value: 29.2 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.80 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 90.3 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.58 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 58.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.06 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value:999.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 999.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value:999.00 Scaled RI index=999.00 Prob of RI=999.0% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.1%)