* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT MISSING * INVEST 09/11/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 32 37 40 42 43 42 39 34 29 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 32 37 40 42 43 42 39 34 29 SHEAR (KTS) 11 7 7 7 5 6 6 2 4 12 17 25 31 SHEAR DIR 308 325 336 345 348 5 66 159 295 255 260 255 264 SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.1 26.2 26.1 25.8 25.6 25.6 25.4 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 147 146 144 138 128 127 124 122 122 120 118 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.3 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -52.5 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -53.5 -53.4 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 7 7 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 500-300 MB RH 47 47 53 51 51 45 42 41 39 35 37 33 36 MO FLX (M/S/D) 2 5 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 -1 -5 850 MB VORT -10 -15 -11 -9 4 27 28 0 -21 -46 -52 -53 -53 LAND (KM) 1009 1025 1053 1101 1159 1263 1403 1553 1683 1846 2036 2039 1778 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 15.0 15.3 15.6 15.9 16.5 17.2 17.8 18.6 19.2 19.6 20.1 20.4 LONG(DEG W) 113.9 115.0 116.0 117.1 118.2 120.6 123.1 125.6 128.1 130.5 132.9 135.3 137.8 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 576 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 2 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 18. 20. 21. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 7. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 7. 12. 15. 17. 18. 17. 14. 9. 4. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 4. 7. 12. 15. 17. 18. 17. 14. 9. 4. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 9/11/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 7.4 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.64 SST (C) : Value: 28.0 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.38 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 121.8 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.86 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 78.0 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.55 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value:9999.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value:999.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 999.9 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value:999.00 Scaled RI index=999.00 Prob of RI=999.0% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.0%)