* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * OPHELIA 09/12/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 64 65 66 68 70 71 70 70 69 68 64 58 V (KT) LAND 65 64 65 66 68 70 71 70 70 69 68 64 58 SHEAR (KTS) 16 12 11 10 11 8 9 10 5 11 13 21 31 SHEAR DIR 293 308 317 310 297 286 253 277 283 304 227 212 211 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.8 28.4 27.8 26.8 24.4 18.9 POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 164 162 162 160 159 154 148 139 127 106 81 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.6 -51.9 -51.7 -51.2 -51.4 -50.0 -50.5 -49.6 -50.1 -50.7 -50.6 -50.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 8 8 4 9 6 10 7 7 2 2 500-300 MB RH 41 37 38 36 34 36 35 41 39 45 41 29 22 MO FLX (M/S/D) 10 3 3 4 7 7 5 9 4 3 2 1 0 850 MB VORT 0 -17 -12 -12 -15 -10 -5 -11 -23 5 79 146 87 LAND (KM) 353 339 316 290 266 220 172 118 43 45 116 176 199 LAT (DEG N) 31.2 31.2 31.2 31.4 31.6 32.1 32.6 33.5 34.5 35.8 37.2 39.3 41.7 LONG(DEG W) 76.2 76.6 76.9 77.1 77.2 77.3 77.2 76.8 76.2 75.4 74.4 71.9 68.0 HEAT CONTENT 27 29 32 34 37 44 41 31 22 7 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 240/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ -1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 572 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 22 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 70 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. -1. -5. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 16. 18. 19. 19. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. -14. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -3. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. -1. -7. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. -1. -7. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) OPHELIA 9/12/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.53 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 12.0 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.76 SST (C) : Value: 29.3 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.82 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 97.4 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.64 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 56.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.00 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value:999.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 999.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value:999.00 Scaled RI index=999.00 Prob of RI=999.0% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.1%)