* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT MISSING * NONAME 09/12/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 38 41 47 50 52 51 48 43 37 31 V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 38 41 47 50 52 51 48 43 37 31 SHEAR (KTS) 9 8 6 6 4 4 4 5 9 20 24 31 30 SHEAR DIR 340 5 3 36 69 39 121 256 252 268 264 268 254 SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.0 26.3 26.2 25.9 25.8 25.5 25.2 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 147 145 143 137 129 128 125 124 121 118 115 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.7 -52.8 -52.4 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 8 8 6 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 500-300 MB RH 48 48 50 51 48 48 45 44 41 38 38 43 43 MO FLX (M/S/D) 2 -1 -1 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 -1 -7 -4 -1 850 MB VORT -7 -11 -13 6 8 19 14 -1 -11 -8 -5 -4 -3 LAND (KM) 1016 1042 1081 1140 1195 1336 1485 1626 1789 1990 2083 1788 1520 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.2 15.5 15.8 16.0 16.4 17.1 17.8 18.5 19.0 19.7 20.3 21.0 LONG(DEG W) 114.5 115.6 116.7 117.8 118.9 121.5 124.0 126.6 129.3 132.0 134.9 137.7 140.3 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 588 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 10 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 8. 11. 14. 16. 17. 18. 18. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 9. 6. 3. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 11. 17. 20. 22. 21. 18. 13. 7. 1. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 5. 8. 11. 17. 20. 22. 21. 18. 13. 7. 1. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) NONAME 9/12/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.79 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 6.7 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.69 SST (C) : Value: 27.9 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.36 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 116.4 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.81 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 77.0 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.50 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value:9999.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value:999.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 999.9 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value:999.00 Scaled RI index=999.00 Prob of RI=999.0% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.0%)