* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * OPHELIA 09/12/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 65 67 68 69 72 71 70 69 69 64 59 52 V (KT) LAND 65 65 67 68 69 72 71 70 60 60 55 50 43 SHEAR (KTS) 17 12 9 8 14 6 16 7 14 11 22 28 36 SHEAR DIR 305 327 333 290 299 266 270 270 272 227 220 210 215 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.4 27.8 27.0 24.7 20.8 15.7 POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 162 162 160 159 155 148 139 129 108 87 75 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.1 -51.8 -51.5 -51.5 -50.6 -50.3 -49.9 -50.2 -50.7 -51.2 -51.7 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 9 8 7 9 7 10 7 8 2 1 0 500-300 MB RH 37 37 38 36 33 38 35 41 46 41 41 38 38 MO FLX (M/S/D) 6 3 0 -2 1 5 10 15 4 -2 -12 8 9 850 MB VORT -36 -24 -23 -26 -34 -25 -34 -18 5 42 81 128 119 LAND (KM) 337 298 258 234 212 169 62 12 0 153 200 113 82 LAT (DEG N) 31.2 31.4 31.6 31.9 32.1 32.5 33.5 34.6 35.6 37.1 39.1 41.1 43.1 LONG(DEG W) 76.6 77.0 77.3 77.4 77.5 77.6 77.7 77.1 75.9 74.0 71.8 69.3 66.6 HEAT CONTENT 29 34 36 41 43 39 27 24 8 2 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 520 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 12 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 65 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. -1. -5. -10. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 13. 16. 17. 18. 18. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -12. -15. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -7. -6. -4. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 3. 4. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. -1. -6. -13. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 2. 3. 4. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. -1. -6. -13. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) OPHELIA 9/12/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 12.0 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.76 SST (C) : Value: 29.3 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.82 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 96.7 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.64 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 59.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.07 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value:999.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 999.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value:999.00 Scaled RI index=999.00 Prob of RI=999.0% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.1%)