* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT MISSING * TEN 09/12/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 39 42 48 54 57 58 56 52 48 44 V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 39 42 48 54 57 58 56 52 48 44 SHEAR (KTS) 11 10 6 5 3 2 1 2 9 13 17 16 21 SHEAR DIR 327 343 7 67 99 328 69 216 218 243 244 252 226 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.5 26.8 26.6 26.7 26.7 26.5 26.4 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 147 146 145 142 135 132 133 133 131 130 129 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.9 -52.9 -52.5 -52.6 -53.0 -52.7 -53.0 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -53.0 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 7 6 6 6 6 4 4 4 4 4 500-300 MB RH 50 51 53 53 54 49 49 47 43 42 40 39 36 MO FLX (M/S/D) 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 -1 850 MB VORT 13 10 31 47 60 43 37 12 -13 -26 -16 -27 -21 LAND (KM) 1038 1079 1128 1194 1259 1363 1491 1623 1727 1842 1973 2098 2184 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.1 15.2 15.4 15.5 15.8 16.3 16.7 17.0 17.2 17.4 17.7 18.0 LONG(DEG W) 115.1 116.1 117.0 118.1 119.2 121.2 123.4 125.3 127.1 128.8 130.6 132.3 134.1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 607 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 36 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 8. 12. 15. 18. 19. 20. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 11. 10. 9. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 9. 12. 18. 24. 27. 28. 26. 22. 18. 14. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 5. 9. 12. 18. 24. 27. 28. 26. 22. 18. 14. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) TEN 9/12/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.79 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 7.0 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.67 SST (C) : Value: 28.0 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.38 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 116.8 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.81 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 79.2 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.60 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value:9999.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value:999.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 999.9 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value:999.00 Scaled RI index=999.00 Prob of RI=999.0% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.0%)