* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * OPHELIA 09/12/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 65 66 67 68 69 67 66 63 61 56 50 42 V (KT) LAND 65 65 66 67 68 69 67 62 55 52 47 42 34 SHEAR (KTS) 11 11 8 10 10 16 14 12 18 29 40 45 55 SHEAR DIR 295 326 311 300 308 260 284 279 272 255 241 230 230 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.7 28.1 27.4 26.1 24.0 20.2 15.6 POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 162 160 159 157 152 143 134 120 103 85 74 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.3 -51.9 -51.7 -51.1 -50.4 -51.0 -50.3 -50.9 -51.9 -52.2 -52.2 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 8 8 6 5 9 6 9 6 5 1 0 0 500-300 MB RH 32 34 32 33 35 35 41 46 47 47 39 31 33 MO FLX (M/S/D) 2 0 0 5 3 9 12 0 -5 -18 6 8 -14 850 MB VORT -35 -30 -32 -36 -34 -26 -22 -6 13 47 61 110 96 LAND (KM) 295 270 245 217 183 110 53 10 54 146 166 124 87 LAT (DEG N) 31.5 31.7 31.8 32.1 32.4 33.1 34.0 35.1 36.4 37.9 39.6 41.3 43.1 LONG(DEG W) 76.9 77.1 77.3 77.4 77.5 77.5 77.2 76.5 75.2 73.5 71.3 69.0 66.7 HEAT CONTENT 27 30 32 34 31 23 21 8 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 315/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 622 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -7 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 65 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -4. -8. -14. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 15. 16. 16. 15. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -6. -7. -10. -14. -17. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -6. -4. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 3. 2. -1. -3. -8. -14. -21. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. 1. -2. -4. -9. -15. -23. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) OPHELIA 9/12/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 10.0 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.81 SST (C) : Value: 29.2 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.81 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 96.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.63 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 60.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.11 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 37.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.24 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 14.8 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.77 Scaled RI index= 4.08 Prob of RI= 12.7% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.1%)