* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * TEN 09/12/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 36 38 44 47 50 50 49 46 43 40 V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 36 38 44 47 50 50 49 46 43 40 SHEAR (KTS) 8 6 5 4 2 4 8 8 15 18 22 23 23 SHEAR DIR 334 22 67 112 215 219 280 256 248 247 244 241 241 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.3 26.8 26.8 27.0 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.4 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 147 146 144 143 140 135 135 137 133 132 132 130 128 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.9 -52.6 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 4 5 5 500-300 MB RH 52 48 44 46 46 41 38 37 36 35 38 38 43 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 -2 -4 -4 -2 3 850 MB VORT 8 24 43 58 48 60 25 0 -7 -8 -10 -11 -3 LAND (KM) 1083 1145 1211 1266 1331 1483 1670 1834 2018 2243 1953 1660 1394 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.6 15.7 15.9 16.1 16.3 16.5 16.7 17.0 17.2 17.4 17.4 17.2 LONG(DEG W) 116.6 117.7 118.7 119.9 121.1 123.3 125.7 128.2 130.8 133.6 136.4 139.2 141.8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 614 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 25 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 8. 11. 14. 17. 18. 19. 20. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 9. 9. 8. 6. 4. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -12. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 14. 17. 21. 21. 19. 16. 13. 10. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 3. 6. 8. 14. 17. 20. 20. 19. 16. 13. 10. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) TEN 9/12/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 5.0 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.80 SST (C) : Value: 27.7 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.29 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 113.9 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.78 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 75.6 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.44 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 62.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.49 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 29.0 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.00 Scaled RI index= 3.43 Prob of RI= 17.1% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.0%)