* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * TEN 09/12/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 41 46 50 52 52 52 51 49 48 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 41 46 50 52 52 52 51 49 48 SHEAR (KTS) 3 5 5 4 4 5 6 12 12 14 14 19 17 SHEAR DIR 28 113 131 164 211 233 239 236 236 217 214 211 231 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.3 27.0 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.1 26.7 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 147 146 145 143 140 137 139 138 138 138 138 133 131 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.5 -52.6 -53.0 -53.1 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -53.2 -52.5 -52.9 -52.8 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 500-300 MB RH 50 45 48 43 42 39 35 34 34 36 41 42 47 MO FLX (M/S/D) -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 5 5 6 3 2 850 MB VORT 39 56 60 66 66 71 50 42 44 44 43 45 43 LAND (KM) 1215 1273 1315 1387 1467 1651 1813 2005 2226 2074 1777 1498 1226 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.3 15.5 15.6 15.7 15.9 16.3 16.4 16.3 16.2 16.4 16.4 16.3 LONG(DEG W) 118.0 119.1 120.1 121.3 122.5 125.0 127.5 130.1 132.7 135.5 138.3 141.0 143.7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 538 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 35 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 8. 11. 15. 18. 20. 21. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 8. 8. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 14. 18. 21. 22. 21. 20. 19. 18. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 11. 16. 20. 22. 22. 22. 21. 19. 18. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) TEN 9/12/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 4.1 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.85 SST (C) : Value: 27.7 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.30 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 114.1 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.78 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 74.6 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.39 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 67.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.55 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 24.8 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.18 Scaled RI index= 3.69 Prob of RI= 21.9% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.0%)