* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * OPHELIA 09/13/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 60 61 63 63 64 64 63 62 60 56 50 43 V (KT) LAND 60 60 61 63 63 64 64 57 54 53 49 43 36 SHEAR (KTS) 10 12 8 7 14 10 14 20 20 26 36 41 50 SHEAR DIR 305 319 319 273 260 294 262 280 267 256 233 220 215 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.4 28.1 27.9 27.3 25.3 22.5 20.6 POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 159 159 157 155 148 143 141 133 113 94 86 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.7 -51.8 -50.9 -50.1 -50.9 -50.1 -50.9 -51.7 -52.1 -51.7 -51.3 -50.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 5 9 10 6 10 6 8 5 4 1 1 500-300 MB RH 31 32 33 34 34 40 46 42 46 46 38 32 32 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 -1 4 6 16 12 9 -5 -3 -1 11 6 0 850 MB VORT -20 -21 -22 -16 -17 -12 15 13 22 31 39 40 79 LAND (KM) 208 182 156 139 118 45 8 10 54 195 241 214 233 LAT (DEG N) 31.9 32.2 32.5 32.7 32.9 33.6 34.5 35.1 35.7 36.9 38.9 40.4 41.4 LONG(DEG W) 77.7 77.8 77.9 77.9 77.9 77.9 77.3 76.5 75.3 73.6 71.2 68.5 65.4 HEAT CONTENT 32 31 27 26 24 18 18 8 3 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 305/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 710 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -1 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 60 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -4. -8. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 15. 16. 16. 15. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -12. -15. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. -2. -9. -15. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -4. -10. -17. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) OPHELIA 9/13/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 10.3 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.81 SST (C) : Value: 29.1 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.79 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 99.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.66 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 60.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.12 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 58.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.49 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 16.7 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.71 Scaled RI index= 4.28 Prob of RI= 15.2% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)