* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * TEN 09/13/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 41 44 50 55 58 59 59 58 58 57 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 41 44 50 55 58 59 59 58 58 57 SHEAR (KTS) 6 6 3 1 2 5 8 8 9 11 13 10 13 SHEAR DIR 56 66 105 129 185 269 222 235 188 178 180 171 157 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.7 28.0 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.3 28.0 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 147 145 143 144 147 148 150 151 150 147 143 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -53.2 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 6 6 6 500-300 MB RH 52 47 47 45 42 39 37 35 36 41 40 42 43 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 0 0 -2 0 1 0 0 0 3 4 850 MB VORT 55 60 62 66 75 71 66 66 61 57 40 25 19 LAND (KM) 1290 1363 1429 1515 1606 1804 2011 2221 2364 2128 1903 1652 1381 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 14.8 14.8 14.8 14.8 14.8 14.7 14.4 14.1 14.1 14.4 14.4 14.1 LONG(DEG W) 118.8 119.9 120.9 122.2 123.4 125.9 128.4 130.9 133.3 135.6 137.7 140.2 143.1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 514 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 40 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 23. 25. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 14. 19. 23. 26. 27. 27. 26. 26. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 6. 6. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 11. 14. 20. 25. 28. 29. 29. 28. 28. 27. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) TEN 9/13/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 3.7 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.88 SST (C) : Value: 27.9 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.35 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 115.8 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.80 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 77.8 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.54 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 85.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.80 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 17.0 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.52 Scaled RI index= 4.51 Prob of RI= 38.8% is 3.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)