* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * OPHELIA 09/13/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 60 62 63 64 66 67 67 66 64 59 53 44 V (KT) LAND 60 60 62 63 64 66 67 63 62 60 56 49 40 SHEAR (KTS) 14 9 3 10 15 7 8 18 22 34 38 50 50 SHEAR DIR 301 340 284 275 295 256 278 262 243 228 227 222 228 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.3 27.9 27.8 27.3 26.1 22.3 18.5 POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 160 159 157 154 146 141 139 133 120 93 80 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.9 -51.0 -50.3 -50.2 -50.6 -50.6 -51.8 -52.7 -52.6 -52.4 -52.2 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 10 10 8 10 8 9 5 4 1 2 0 500-300 MB RH 30 32 34 33 36 43 40 44 49 40 37 35 43 MO FLX (M/S/D) 3 0 3 6 10 10 1 -12 -1 13 14 1 1 850 MB VORT -12 -13 -3 -16 -36 -10 3 14 16 26 17 50 -10 LAND (KM) 193 176 160 147 118 55 7 5 97 228 302 269 128 LAT (DEG N) 31.9 32.1 32.3 32.6 32.9 33.8 34.7 35.4 36.0 37.0 38.5 40.5 42.9 LONG(DEG W) 77.9 78.0 78.0 78.0 77.9 77.4 76.7 75.9 74.8 73.1 70.6 67.6 64.1 HEAT CONTENT 32 31 29 26 24 22 13 5 2 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 290/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 587 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 17 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 60 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -2. -5. -9. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 13. 15. 16. 16. 16. 15. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -16. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 6. 1. -6. -15. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. -1. -7. -16. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) OPHELIA 9/13/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 10.4 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.80 SST (C) : Value: 29.1 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.79 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 99.3 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.66 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 60.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.12 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 56.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.47 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 17.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.66 Scaled RI index= 4.21 Prob of RI= 14.3% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)