* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * TEN 09/13/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 41 47 53 59 62 64 64 63 61 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 41 47 53 59 62 64 64 63 61 SHEAR (KTS) 7 9 6 4 2 1 3 2 7 10 10 13 17 SHEAR DIR 8 31 60 95 78 201 255 203 136 126 147 126 146 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.9 28.2 28.4 28.7 28.9 29.0 28.9 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 148 148 147 146 149 151 154 156 157 156 153 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -53.1 -52.9 -53.3 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 500-300 MB RH 52 51 51 50 52 52 48 50 51 58 52 51 46 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 -1 -4 0 0 1 850 MB VORT 69 70 83 93 77 60 58 53 45 31 17 3 22 LAND (KM) 1376 1457 1532 1605 1680 1838 2048 2249 2439 2266 2054 1858 1673 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.1 14.0 13.9 13.8 13.8 13.6 13.4 13.2 12.9 12.7 12.7 12.9 LONG(DEG W) 119.3 120.4 121.4 122.4 123.3 125.4 127.8 130.2 132.5 134.7 136.9 138.9 140.7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 265/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 570 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 38 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 5. 9. 14. 18. 22. 25. 27. 28. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 16. 22. 27. 31. 32. 32. 32. 31. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 11. 17. 24. 29. 32. 34. 34. 33. 31. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) TEN 9/13/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 5.7 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.76 SST (C) : Value: 28.1 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.41 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 117.9 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.82 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 83.0 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.77 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 55.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.39 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 23.0 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.26 Scaled RI index= 4.03 Prob of RI= 28.2% is 2.3 times the sample mean(12.0%)