* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * OPHELIA 09/13/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 61 63 63 64 66 66 67 67 65 60 54 48 V (KT) LAND 60 61 63 63 64 66 60 61 61 59 54 48 42 SHEAR (KTS) 12 5 11 16 11 13 14 15 25 29 33 51 67 SHEAR DIR 344 319 297 297 299 307 285 271 247 231 217 217 226 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.4 28.0 27.7 27.4 26.7 23.8 21.4 18.0 POT. INT. (KT) 160 159 159 157 155 148 142 138 134 126 102 89 79 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.1 -50.7 -50.6 -51.2 -51.2 -52.0 -52.8 -52.9 -52.3 -52.1 -52.4 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 10 10 8 7 10 7 9 5 4 1 1 0 500-300 MB RH 32 33 36 33 38 43 49 51 47 44 36 34 37 MO FLX (M/S/D) -5 4 8 11 4 7 0 0 7 11 -12 6 -31 850 MB VORT -18 -9 -22 -47 -51 -37 -19 25 38 34 51 84 43 LAND (KM) 174 155 136 92 48 15 0 111 256 343 342 245 177 LAT (DEG N) 32.2 32.5 32.7 33.2 33.6 34.5 35.3 36.2 36.9 38.2 40.0 42.5 45.5 LONG(DEG W) 77.9 78.0 78.0 77.9 77.8 77.2 76.0 74.6 72.8 70.3 67.0 62.4 57.0 HEAT CONTENT 30 28 25 21 19 17 6 1 0 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 315/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 545 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 22 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 60 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -4. -8. -12. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 14. 16. 17. 18. 17. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -9. -13. -16. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 2. -4. -11. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 5. 0. -6. -12. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) OPHELIA 9/13/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 10.9 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.79 SST (C) : Value: 29.1 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.78 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 98.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.65 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 61.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.15 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 79.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.75 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 18.5 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.64 Scaled RI index= 4.46 Prob of RI= 18.5% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.1%)