* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * TEN 09/13/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 36 38 44 50 55 59 60 60 59 57 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 36 38 44 50 55 59 60 60 59 57 SHEAR (KTS) 7 8 8 6 4 5 2 5 8 11 6 13 11 SHEAR DIR 48 71 91 96 110 176 196 130 126 156 136 121 146 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.5 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 147 146 146 148 150 151 153 153 154 152 146 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.9 -52.5 -52.8 -53.1 -52.5 -52.8 -52.4 -53.0 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 4 4 500-300 MB RH 52 50 52 55 56 51 49 51 54 48 47 41 41 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 3 4 2 1 2 2 1 -1 -1 2 2 0 850 MB VORT 63 76 79 82 75 63 55 56 45 32 12 22 52 LAND (KM) 1461 1531 1605 1689 1776 1958 2159 2337 2320 2133 2002 1813 1582 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.2 14.1 14.0 13.9 13.7 13.7 13.7 13.6 13.7 13.7 13.9 14.4 LONG(DEG W) 120.7 121.7 122.6 123.7 124.7 126.8 129.3 131.7 133.9 135.7 137.0 138.8 140.9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 260/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ -1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 532 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 26 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.1 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 9. 14. 18. 22. 25. 26. 27. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 10. 11. 11. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -14. -15. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 13. 19. 24. 28. 28. 28. 27. 27. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 6. 8. 14. 20. 25. 29. 30. 30. 29. 27. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) TEN 9/13/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 6.7 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.69 SST (C) : Value: 28.0 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.38 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 117.0 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.81 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 82.6 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.75 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 43.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.23 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 23.1 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.25 Scaled RI index= 3.75 Prob of RI= 23.0% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.0%)