* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * OPHELIA 09/13/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 61 62 63 64 64 64 62 60 58 54 49 44 V (KT) LAND 60 61 62 63 64 60 60 58 56 53 49 45 39 SHEAR (KTS) 9 12 14 8 10 13 9 18 29 34 38 53 58 SHEAR DIR 296 294 290 289 278 279 269 256 247 237 231 244 251 SST (C) 28.4 28.2 28.1 27.8 27.5 26.8 26.8 26.6 26.3 24.4 21.5 18.4 14.7 POT. INT. (KT) 148 145 143 139 135 127 127 125 122 106 90 80 73 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.5 -51.2 -51.7 -51.4 -51.6 -51.9 -52.3 -52.7 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 8 7 11 8 11 7 6 3 1 0 0 500-300 MB RH 32 35 34 38 38 47 47 55 63 60 54 49 49 MO FLX (M/S/D) 3 5 10 4 11 0 -1 5 0 12 19 20 28 850 MB VORT -4 -22 -39 -33 -16 -5 17 5 34 49 71 61 46 LAND (KM) 148 118 79 44 22 11 100 219 338 322 242 162 211 LAT (DEG N) 32.5 32.9 33.3 33.9 34.4 35.2 35.5 36.1 37.4 39.5 42.5 45.5 48.3 LONG(DEG W) 78.0 77.9 77.8 77.5 77.2 76.2 74.8 73.4 71.4 67.9 62.5 56.5 50.1 HEAT CONTENT 27 23 20 23 18 7 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 335/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 632 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 36 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 60 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -8. -10. -14. -19. -23. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 13. 15. 16. 18. 20. 20. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -17. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. -2. -5. -10. -15. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 0. -2. -6. -11. -16. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) OPHELIA 9/13/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 10.6 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.80 SST (C) : Value: 28.0 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.61 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 82.1 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.50 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 63.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.21 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 84.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.81 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 15.4 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.75 Scaled RI index= 4.38 Prob of RI= 16.4% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.1%)