* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 09/13/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 21 23 26 33 41 50 55 61 69 75 78 V (KT) LAND 20 21 21 23 26 33 41 50 55 61 69 75 78 SHEAR (KTS) 18 16 11 10 6 4 11 6 9 2 3 8 8 SHEAR DIR 254 250 258 254 253 308 58 67 82 183 49 245 263 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.2 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 155 157 160 164 164 160 157 159 162 164 165 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -53.1 -53.5 -52.7 -53.3 -52.8 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 500-300 MB RH 58 63 68 66 63 69 71 69 71 66 63 63 58 MO FLX (M/S/D) -1 -3 0 1 1 2 0 0 0 1 1 2 2 850 MB VORT -8 0 10 19 26 51 33 28 25 26 32 41 39 LAND (KM) 1387 1380 1355 1280 1208 1049 943 870 869 905 1000 961 944 LAT (DEG N) 9.5 9.7 9.8 9.9 10.0 10.2 10.7 11.4 12.4 13.4 14.6 15.6 16.6 LONG(DEG W) 38.5 39.4 40.3 41.2 42.0 44.0 46.0 48.0 49.8 51.3 52.6 53.6 54.6 HEAT CONTENT 30 31 31 34 42 60 54 47 59 73 84 90 93 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 653 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 35 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. 0. 3. 9. 15. 18. 23. 26. 31. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 5. 13. 21. 30. 36. 43. 50. 56. 60. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 1. 3. 6. 13. 21. 30. 35. 41. 49. 55. 58. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 9/13/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 12.2 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.76 SST (C) : Value: 28.9 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.75 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 135.1 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.99 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 85.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.92 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 24.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.08 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 22.7 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.50 Scaled RI index= 4.70 Prob of RI= 25.5% is 2.1 times the sample mean(12.1%)