* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * TEN 09/13/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 37 43 50 55 59 61 62 61 60 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 37 43 50 55 59 61 62 61 60 SHEAR (KTS) 6 7 7 5 6 3 1 5 8 8 8 9 4 SHEAR DIR 54 68 69 94 107 178 152 106 153 164 117 156 171 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.1 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 146 146 146 149 150 152 153 153 153 148 141 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.6 -52.8 -53.2 -53.2 -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 -52.9 -52.5 -53.1 -52.7 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 5 4 5 4 5 4 4 4 4 4 500-300 MB RH 49 51 53 55 54 51 54 53 51 51 51 49 41 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 1 2 0 0 0 2 1 0 -1 0 0 0 850 MB VORT 77 75 76 74 75 75 58 54 45 39 48 63 71 LAND (KM) 1553 1619 1686 1765 1846 2006 2167 2361 2245 2028 1899 1676 1405 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.1 13.9 13.8 13.6 13.6 13.6 13.6 13.7 13.8 14.0 14.3 14.6 LONG(DEG W) 122.1 122.8 123.5 124.4 125.3 127.3 129.3 131.9 134.6 136.7 137.9 140.0 142.6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 260/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ -1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 516 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 13 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 9. 14. 18. 22. 25. 26. 27. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -15. -16. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 13. 20. 25. 28. 29. 30. 29. 29. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 4. 7. 13. 20. 25. 29. 31. 32. 31. 30. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) TEN 9/13/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 6.3 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.72 SST (C) : Value: 27.9 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.36 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 116.4 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.81 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 82.8 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.76 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 38.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.16 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 24.9 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.17 Scaled RI index= 3.62 Prob of RI= 20.5% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.0%)