* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * OPHELIA 09/14/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 67 69 70 72 71 70 66 61 55 49 42 37 V (KT) LAND 65 67 69 70 72 71 70 66 61 55 49 42 37 SHEAR (KTS) 13 12 10 6 7 16 21 26 36 40 56 64 68 SHEAR DIR 281 293 290 244 298 277 262 262 252 242 251 260 269 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.7 27.3 26.9 26.8 26.5 26.1 22.3 21.1 16.9 14.3 POT. INT. (KT) 146 145 142 138 133 128 127 124 120 93 88 77 73 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.6 -51.9 -51.4 -51.4 -52.0 -52.1 -52.7 -53.1 -52.9 -53.3 -53.4 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 8 7 11 10 7 9 6 4 1 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 35 34 37 42 43 45 53 52 58 53 45 47 53 MO FLX (M/S/D) 12 10 7 8 5 -5 -3 6 18 27 17 22 -3 850 MB VORT -11 -31 -33 -6 11 -4 18 9 10 35 43 55 -7 LAND (KM) 135 102 62 50 28 46 171 329 369 301 213 0 521 LAT (DEG N) 32.6 33.1 33.5 34.0 34.5 35.2 35.6 36.7 38.4 40.8 43.6 46.7 49.6 LONG(DEG W) 78.1 77.9 77.7 77.3 76.8 75.5 74.0 72.0 69.3 65.2 59.7 53.2 46.0 HEAT CONTENT 25 22 19 22 16 7 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 345/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 666 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 17 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 60 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -7. -10. -14. -19. -24. -29. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 13. 15. 17. 18. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -11. -14. -18. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. -1. -5. -10. -15. -21. -26. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 5. 7. 6. 5. 1. -4. -10. -16. -23. -28. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) OPHELIA 9/14/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 9.5 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.82 SST (C) : Value: 27.9 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.59 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 75.8 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.45 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 62.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.19 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 97.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.96 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 10.4 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.92 Scaled RI index= 4.81 Prob of RI= 30.0% is 2.5 times the sample mean(12.1%)