* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * TEN 09/14/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 41 47 52 55 57 57 57 58 58 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 41 47 52 55 57 57 57 58 58 SHEAR (KTS) 6 5 6 6 8 6 4 4 8 7 7 3 5 SHEAR DIR 75 62 79 107 147 197 197 170 172 161 131 149 247 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.0 27.7 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 147 147 147 146 146 145 146 147 147 144 139 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -53.3 -53.3 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -52.9 -52.2 -52.8 -52.2 -52.8 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 500-300 MB RH 53 55 56 56 54 53 52 53 49 51 50 52 42 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 2 2 3 2 0 0 1 0 -1 -1 850 MB VORT 68 72 68 69 67 56 48 41 38 52 64 87 105 LAND (KM) 1655 1734 1815 1894 1975 2143 2307 2330 2112 1929 1803 1630 1450 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.1 13.9 13.9 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.9 14.0 14.0 13.9 14.2 14.7 LONG(DEG W) 123.4 124.3 125.2 126.2 127.1 129.2 131.4 133.7 135.8 137.6 138.9 140.5 142.1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 265/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 500 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 34 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.1 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 5. 9. 13. 18. 21. 23. 24. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. -15. -16. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 14. 19. 23. 25. 26. 26. 27. 27. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 11. 17. 22. 25. 27. 27. 27. 28. 28. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) TEN 9/14/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 6.1 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.73 SST (C) : Value: 28.0 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.39 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 117.2 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.82 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 81.8 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.72 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 75.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.66 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 23.1 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.25 Scaled RI index= 4.19 Prob of RI= 31.2% is 2.6 times the sample mean(12.0%)