* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 09/14/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 35 37 41 43 44 44 43 42 42 42 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 35 37 41 43 44 44 43 42 42 42 SHEAR (KTS) 15 16 15 12 11 10 14 12 12 18 16 14 6 SHEAR DIR 25 34 41 44 53 32 32 21 39 32 44 14 21 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.2 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 148 148 148 149 150 150 151 151 151 149 146 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.9 -53.5 -53.2 -52.2 -53.1 -52.0 -52.8 -51.8 -52.6 -51.6 -52.4 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 500-300 MB RH 63 65 66 63 59 61 59 63 56 62 55 62 59 MO FLX (M/S/D) 1 2 2 2 0 1 2 -3 0 0 2 0 0 850 MB VORT 21 9 3 0 0 9 19 21 34 43 47 47 51 LAND (KM) 1484 1501 1516 1534 1555 1616 1692 1776 1844 1888 1921 1932 1946 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.7 10.8 10.9 11.0 11.1 11.2 11.2 11.4 11.7 12.3 13.2 14.2 LONG(DEG W) 115.3 116.0 116.6 117.2 117.7 118.9 120.2 121.4 122.6 123.7 124.9 126.0 127.1 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 285/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 575 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 86 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 15. 20. 25. 27. 29. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -16. 500-300 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 15. 16. 15. 15. 15. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 10. 12. 16. 18. 19. 19. 18. 17. 17. 17. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 9/14/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 13.8 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.23 SST (C) : Value: 28.1 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.41 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 123.1 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 86.2 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.92 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 84.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.78 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 16.2 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.55 Scaled RI index= 4.40 Prob of RI= 35.4% is 2.9 times the sample mean(12.0%)