* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * OPHELIA 09/14/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 65 66 67 67 67 66 63 59 54 48 41 36 V (KT) LAND 65 65 66 67 67 67 66 63 59 54 48 41 36 SHEAR (KTS) 13 11 3 7 8 8 15 18 30 35 48 53 61 SHEAR DIR 290 304 278 299 318 279 273 255 257 245 242 247 244 SST (C) 28.3 28.0 27.8 27.5 27.2 26.9 26.7 26.7 25.8 22.9 21.0 17.6 14.9 POT. INT. (KT) 146 142 139 135 132 128 126 126 117 96 88 78 73 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.0 -51.5 -50.9 -50.9 -51.7 -52.4 -52.0 -51.7 -51.4 -52.0 -52.4 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 11 10 9 11 7 6 3 1 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 36 38 43 44 41 44 51 56 54 52 50 54 54 MO FLX (M/S/D) 12 3 4 2 -1 -5 0 0 13 13 4 -1 -24 850 MB VORT -28 -22 -5 -3 -3 2 -18 11 45 50 29 27 78 LAND (KM) 128 90 75 63 35 99 241 384 382 303 277 88 329 LAT (DEG N) 32.8 33.3 33.8 34.2 34.6 35.2 35.9 37.1 38.7 41.0 43.7 45.9 47.7 LONG(DEG W) 77.9 77.5 77.1 76.7 76.2 74.9 73.2 71.0 68.2 64.0 58.4 53.2 48.4 HEAT CONTENT 24 21 21 17 14 6 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 0/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 610 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 4 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 65 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -7. -11. -14. -20. -25. -30. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 13. 14. 16. 18. 20. 20. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -12. -16. -19. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -10. -16. -22. -27. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -6. -11. -17. -24. -29. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) OPHELIA 9/14/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 8.3 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.85 SST (C) : Value: 27.8 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.57 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 73.9 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.43 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 64.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.23 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 80.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.76 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 15.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.73 Scaled RI index= 4.28 Prob of RI= 15.1% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)