* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * TEN 09/14/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 40 46 52 57 60 62 62 60 58 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 40 46 52 57 60 62 62 60 58 SHEAR (KTS) 2 6 6 8 6 8 3 3 6 7 12 11 15 SHEAR DIR 67 51 76 109 150 198 202 122 145 106 127 151 172 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.8 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.6 27.3 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 147 147 146 145 145 147 147 146 143 140 138 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -53.0 -53.0 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -53.2 -52.9 -53.3 -52.6 -53.2 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 500-300 MB RH 53 54 54 54 52 50 52 52 53 50 49 46 38 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 -1 0 0 3 3 0 1 1 -3 -4 0 0 850 MB VORT 80 71 69 68 66 59 51 43 40 39 45 55 56 LAND (KM) 1753 1835 1919 2010 2099 2291 2340 2105 1883 1683 1507 1300 1072 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.0 13.9 13.9 13.9 13.9 13.9 13.9 13.9 13.9 13.9 14.2 14.6 LONG(DEG W) 124.6 125.6 126.5 127.6 128.7 131.3 133.6 135.9 138.1 140.1 141.9 143.9 146.1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 265/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 546 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 35 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 9. 13. 17. 21. 23. 24. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 11. 11. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 15. 20. 25. 28. 29. 28. 28. 27. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 10. 16. 22. 27. 30. 32. 32. 31. 28. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) TEN 9/14/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 5.4 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.77 SST (C) : Value: 28.0 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.38 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 116.8 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.81 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 78.2 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.55 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 35.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.12 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 19.8 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.40 Scaled RI index= 3.66 Prob of RI= 21.3% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.0%)