* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 09/14/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 33 36 41 45 48 49 49 49 49 48 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 33 36 41 45 48 49 49 49 49 48 SHEAR (KTS) 12 14 12 10 9 10 13 14 13 15 11 12 9 SHEAR DIR 25 33 45 48 32 21 20 40 43 31 14 347 330 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.3 27.9 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 148 148 148 149 149 150 151 152 150 146 143 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.3 -53.2 -52.2 -52.8 -52.8 -52.3 -52.7 -52.4 -52.6 -52.1 -52.4 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 5 500-300 MB RH 65 60 60 60 60 55 59 60 60 60 59 58 58 MO FLX (M/S/D) 1 2 4 5 1 2 0 0 0 2 2 3 -1 850 MB VORT 21 13 8 10 14 24 32 23 25 28 20 27 23 LAND (KM) 1512 1524 1538 1568 1599 1678 1758 1834 1865 1862 1856 1872 1915 LAT (DEG N) 10.7 10.9 11.0 11.0 10.9 10.7 10.6 10.6 11.1 12.0 13.0 14.1 15.0 LONG(DEG W) 116.3 116.9 117.4 117.9 118.3 119.3 120.4 121.5 122.5 123.7 124.8 126.1 127.4 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 593 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 65 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 15. 20. 25. 27. 29. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 17. 20. 22. 22. 22. 22. 22. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 8. 11. 16. 20. 23. 24. 24. 24. 24. 23. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 9/14/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 11.7 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.37 SST (C) : Value: 28.1 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.41 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 123.1 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 86.4 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.93 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 69.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.58 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 23.5 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.23 Scaled RI index= 4.03 Prob of RI= 28.0% is 2.3 times the sample mean(12.0%)