* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * OPHELIA 09/14/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 72 73 74 74 73 70 66 58 50 43 37 32 V (KT) LAND 70 72 73 74 74 73 70 66 58 50 43 37 32 SHEAR (KTS) 9 3 8 9 15 15 20 30 39 50 62 65 62 SHEAR DIR 298 283 304 303 303 275 284 261 256 250 252 252 243 SST (C) 28.0 27.8 27.4 27.2 26.9 26.7 26.6 26.6 23.3 21.8 18.5 15.6 14.9 POT. INT. (KT) 142 139 134 132 128 126 125 125 99 91 80 74 73 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.0 -50.8 -51.0 -51.6 -51.8 -52.4 -52.2 -52.7 -52.3 -53.3 -52.7 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 11 11 9 8 9 6 3 1 0 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 35 40 37 38 41 52 51 57 60 59 63 63 41 MO FLX (M/S/D) 2 6 4 1 -3 0 2 14 26 47 41 51 -2 850 MB VORT -15 -6 -9 -8 -10 3 -10 26 28 10 7 77 101 LAND (KM) 69 57 40 21 28 135 350 401 370 245 158 190 572 LAT (DEG N) 33.4 33.9 34.4 34.8 35.1 35.7 36.6 38.1 40.2 42.7 45.4 47.4 48.7 LONG(DEG W) 77.8 77.3 76.7 76.3 75.8 74.4 71.8 69.2 66.1 61.7 55.7 50.3 45.2 HEAT CONTENT 19 21 16 12 8 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 10/ 4 CX,CY: 1/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 636 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 37 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 65 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -6. -10. -14. -19. -26. -32. -37. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 10. 11. 13. 16. 18. 18. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -13. -17. -21. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. -1. -5. -11. -19. -25. -31. -36. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 0. -4. -12. -20. -27. -33. -38. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) OPHELIA 9/14/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 8.8 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.84 SST (C) : Value: 27.5 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.52 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 65.1 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.35 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 64.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.24 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 80.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.76 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 14.2 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.79 Scaled RI index= 4.38 Prob of RI= 16.5% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.1%)