* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 09/14/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 26 30 37 44 52 58 64 71 77 83 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 26 30 37 44 52 58 64 71 77 83 SHEAR (KTS) 13 8 6 5 10 12 18 8 11 7 3 5 0 SHEAR DIR 241 219 248 318 9 25 37 85 70 107 73 126 96 SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 -53.0 -53.3 -53.0 -53.4 -53.1 -53.5 -53.1 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 9 10 11 10 11 11 11 10 500-300 MB RH 63 61 64 64 63 61 63 63 66 57 54 51 51 MO FLX (M/S/D) -11 -6 0 4 2 0 0 -1 0 -1 -1 -2 0 850 MB VORT 26 33 44 44 38 40 48 30 39 32 46 39 41 LAND (KM) 1132 1040 955 873 797 695 639 649 674 705 720 766 821 LAT (DEG N) 9.8 9.9 10.0 10.1 10.1 10.5 10.8 11.4 11.8 12.5 13.1 14.1 15.2 LONG(DEG W) 42.7 43.9 45.0 46.2 47.4 49.5 51.3 52.7 53.9 54.5 54.8 54.8 54.9 HEAT CONTENT 51 63 70 61 63 65 76 81 78 73 84 99 102 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 619 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 51 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 3. 9. 15. 19. 24. 27. 31. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 9. 16. 23. 31. 37. 43. 50. 57. 63. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 6. 10. 17. 24. 32. 38. 44. 51. 57. 63. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 9/14/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 8.6 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.85 SST (C) : Value: 29.7 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.89 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 145.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 83.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.85 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 44.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.33 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 25.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.39 Scaled RI index= 5.01 Prob of RI= 37.1% is 3.1 times the sample mean(12.1%)